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September Payrolls: The Economy's Doing Fine

Alex Haseldine

The Q3 slowdown in payroll growth (smaller than previously advertised) is a productivity story, not a recession story. See charts below:



Chart 1: Currnent 6-month annualised growth rates:

NFP Growth: 1.3%

Civilian employment: 0.5%

Av Ex-Recessions = 1.7%


Chart 2: Current GDP Tracker: 3.3%

Chart 3: (Log Level)


Chart 4: Current Real Earned Income Proxy: 3.2%


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