September Payrolls: The Economy's Doing Fine
The Q3 slowdown in payroll growth (smaller than previously advertised) is a productivity story, not a recession story. See charts below:
top of page
Search
Alex Haseldine
Aug 63 min
Not as Bad as it Feels
The July US payrolls report was the catalyst for a rash of recession fears, prompting the mini crash in risk assets and a...
16 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Jun 102 min
It Ain't Necessarily So
Last Friday's May Non-Farm Payroll report looked like a blockbuster (plus 272,000 on the month). And private payroll growth looks to be...
19 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Apr 51 min
Picking Up Steam?
Another strong payrolls report for March means that employment growth picked up in Q1:2024.
15 views
Alex Haseldine
Mar 121 min
Mainstreet Hurting
The update to the NFIB survey underlines what small cap underperformance has been telling us...
21 views
Alex Haseldine
Dec 11, 20232 min
US Labour Market: Almost Back to Normal
Friday's US employment report showed that the rate of private payroll gains ticked up slightly, but at 1.3% the annualised rate in...
31 views
Alex Haseldine
Dec 5, 20235 min
Fours Reasons To Be Thankful
And two to be cautious. Reasons to be cheerful... Rate Shift: over the past 4-6 weeks markets have shifted rapidly towards the idea that...
38 views
Alex Haseldine
Mar 10, 20232 min
Slowly, Slowly, Catchee Monkey
Competition for workers has been fierce but it now seems to be cooling down. Perhaps the Fed can afford to be more patient.
14 views
Alex Haseldine
Dec 5, 20221 min
Not As Strong As It Seems
Following last week's robust employment report, the Fed Fund Futures curve barely budged Here are some reasons why
26 views
bottom of page