The Q3 slowdown in payroll growth (smaller than previously advertised) is a productivity story, not a recession story. See charts below:

The June US PCE report confirms that prices in the services sector are swinging lower again after a pretty hot first quarter. As the...

Chinese President Xi’s visit to Europe has been dominated by trade issues, particularly relating to China’s industrial overcapacity...

US data on growth and inflation is not following the rate cut script...

Euro area goods demand should be resurgent...after a prolonged period of weakness, euro area retail sales should be recovering...they aren't

China is on the cusp of its green transition...

For most intents and purposes inflation is now running close to 2% per annum, or even slightly below...

And two to be cautious. Reasons to be cheerful... Rate Shift: over the past 4-6 weeks markets have shifted rapidly towards the idea that...

Following yesterday’s US CPI release we update some of our favourite charts on inflations and inflation expectations

The Fed doesn’t care that much that inflation has probably peaked; the important question is "where will it settle”?

Today’s US CPI report delivered another shock to markets by giving investors even more reason to fear a Fed policy mistake.

Diffusion indices like the PMI data can be tricky. And have been particularly so since COVID, because activity trends have been so...

Today's Flash PMIs confirmed that order backlogs peaked in summer 2021 and have plummeted over the last 8 months. Output prices were...

Even before Omicron surfaced there had been a deep and wide correction to most of the meme stocks, as well as the “transformation” stocks..

Delta took a small bite out of global growth in July and is taking a larger bite out of August...

The Delta variant is a game changer...estimates of herd resistance across the world's largest economies and briefly discuss the implications