September Payrolls: The Economy's Doing Fine
The Q3 slowdown in payroll growth (smaller than previously advertised) is a productivity story, not a recession story. See charts below:
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Jonathan Wilmot
Sep 262 min
False Alarm?
The downturn in PMI manufacturing new orders continues: after this week's flash PMIs we estimate the weighted G5 average will be down...
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Alex Haseldine
Sep 63 min
Flirting with Fifty
Taken as a whole, this week's US labour market data, including today's Employment Report, gives the FOMC enough cover to start easing...
27 views
Alex Haseldine
Sep 61 min
PMIs: Heading into Autumn?
The PMIs for August are in and the weighted manufacturing new orders for the G5 continued to slide. The G5 index fell to 47.2...
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Jonathan Wilmot
Aug 301 min
US PCE Report: Still Shopping
No sign from today's PCE report that aggregate consumer spending is slowing down. Slightly the opposite in fact...
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Jonathan Wilmot
Aug 151 min
Three Cuts or Four?
Core inflation ex-shelter is now running at 1.6% per annum over the past 6 months. And though shelter costs remain stubbornly high...
16 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Aug 82 min
Global IP, Risk Appetite and Earnings
By coincidence or not, the sudden downturn in global risk appetite fits our short-term forecast for Global Industrial Production...
18 views
Alex Haseldine
Aug 63 min
Not as Bad as it Feels
The July US payrolls report was the catalyst for a rash of recession fears, prompting the mini crash in risk assets and a...
16 views
Alex Haseldine
Jul 261 min
Swing Low
The June US PCE report confirms that prices in the services sector are swinging lower again after a pretty hot first quarter. As the...
12 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Jul 93 min
Apres Moi Le Deluge (2027)
Post Election UK and French Update (7pm 9th July) The UK still looks like an island of stability for the next 5 years, albeit with the...
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Alex Haseldine
Jul 91 min
June's Job Report
Employment slowing, wages slowing, labour supply catching up.
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Jonathan Wilmot
Jul 44 min
Who Can Govern France?
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, WB Yeats: The Second Coming (1920) France and the UK...
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Alex Haseldine
Jul 21 min
Earning Revisions Outpace Manufacturing Recovery
Upward earnings revisions continue to outperform the recovery in global manufacturing, where PMI new orders data has faltered over the...
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Jonathan Wilmot
Jun 281 min
Exuberant But Not Irrational?
Nvidia's Stock price has gone up more than seven-fold since Chat GPT burst on the AI scene. So have One-year Forward earnings.....
11 views
Alex Haseldine
Jun 281 min
US PCE Trends: Promising
May's numbers suggest that the recent bump in inflation has peaked as real spending cools down slightly. On the month core PCE was up...
7 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Jun 102 min
It Ain't Necessarily So
Last Friday's May Non-Farm Payroll report looked like a blockbuster (plus 272,000 on the month). And private payroll growth looks to be...
19 views
Alex Haseldine
Jun 61 min
Semi-Normal
Ahead of tomorrow's employment report the labour market is "semi-normal". Demand is easing but supply hasn't quite caught up. US job...
7 views
Alex Haseldine
Jun 61 min
At Your Service
Post-COVID normalisation means that services have been outperforming manufacturing through most of the current recovery in Global PMIs...
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Alex Haseldine
May 201 min
US GDP Tracker, Earnings Revisions
So far the reporting season for US equities has seen net upward earnings revisions pushing higher again. And our GDP tracker has ticked...
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