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US Growth: Noisy Headlines, Solid Core
Forget the chaotic headlines: core US GDP growth is growing around 3% pa, - as it has been since late April. steaadily
Jonathan Wilmot
Jan 291 min read
More than a blip?
Both net positive US earnings revisions and our indicator of underlying real quarterly US GDP growth suggest that the US is slowing...
Alex Haseldine
Feb 7, 20251 min read
November CPI: Gradual Disinflationary Progress Tempered by Rising Goods Pressures
Yesterday's November CPI report indicates that underlying inflation is making steady, if unspectacular, progress towards 2%, but...
Alex Haseldine
Dec 12, 20242 min read
October CPI Update
No huge surprises in today's CPI: headline CPI up 0.2% for the month (2.6% year-over-year) and Core up 0.3% (3.3% year-over-year)....
Alex Haseldine
Nov 13, 20241 min read
US Consumer Spending Remains Strong, But Are Households Really Feeling It?
In the latest quarter, real consumption in the United States grew at a robust 3.7% annual rate. Goods consumption surged at an impressive...
Alex Haseldine
Nov 1, 20241 min read
September Payrolls: The Economy's Doing Fine
The Q3 slowdown in payroll growth (smaller than previously advertised) is a productivity story, not a recession story. See charts below:
Alex Haseldine
Oct 4, 20241 min read
False Alarm?
The downturn in PMI manufacturing new orders continues: after this week's flash PMIs we estimate the weighted G5 average will be down...
Jonathan Wilmot
Sep 26, 20242 min read
Flirting with Fifty
Taken as a whole, this week's US labour market data, including today's Employment Report, gives the FOMC enough cover to start easing...
Alex Haseldine
Sep 6, 20243 min read
PMIs: Heading into Autumn?
The PMIs for August are in and the weighted manufacturing new orders for the G5 continued to slide. The G5 index fell to 47.2...
Alex Haseldine
Sep 6, 20241 min read
US PCE Report: Still Shopping
No sign from today's PCE report that aggregate consumer spending is slowing down. Slightly the opposite in fact...
Jonathan Wilmot
Aug 30, 20241 min read
Jonathan Wilmot
Aug 22, 20240 min read
Three Cuts or Four?
Core inflation ex-shelter is now running at 1.6% per annum over the past 6 months. And though shelter costs remain stubbornly high...
Jonathan Wilmot
Aug 15, 20241 min read
Global IP, Risk Appetite and Earnings
By coincidence or not, the sudden downturn in global risk appetite fits our short-term forecast for Global Industrial Production...
Jonathan Wilmot
Aug 8, 20242 min read
Not as Bad as it Feels
The July US payrolls report was the catalyst for a rash of recession fears, prompting the mini crash in risk assets and a...
Alex Haseldine
Aug 6, 20243 min read
Swing Low
The June US PCE report confirms that prices in the services sector are swinging lower again after a pretty hot first quarter. As the...
Alex Haseldine
Jul 26, 20241 min read
Apres Moi Le Deluge (2027)
Post Election UK and French Update (7pm 9th July) The UK still looks like an island of stability for the next 5 years, albeit with the...
Jonathan Wilmot
Jul 9, 20243 min read
June's Job Report
Employment slowing, wages slowing, labour supply catching up.
Alex Haseldine
Jul 9, 20241 min read
Who Can Govern France?
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, WB Yeats: The Second Coming (1920) France and the UK...
Jonathan Wilmot
Jul 4, 20244 min read
Earning Revisions Outpace Manufacturing Recovery
Upward earnings revisions continue to outperform the recovery in global manufacturing, where PMI new orders data has faltered over the...
Alex Haseldine
Jul 2, 20241 min read
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