Yesterday's November CPI report indicates that underlying inflation is making steady, if unspectacular, progress towards 2%, but...

In the latest quarter, real consumption in the United States grew at a robust 3.7% annual rate. Goods consumption surged at an impressive...

The Q3 slowdown in payroll growth (smaller than previously advertised) is a productivity story, not a recession story. See charts below:

The downturn in PMI manufacturing new orders continues: after this week's flash PMIs we estimate the weighted G5 average will be down...

Taken as a whole, this week's US labour market data, including today's Employment Report, gives the FOMC enough cover to start easing...

The PMIs for August are in and the weighted manufacturing new orders for the G5 continued to slide. The G5 index fell to 47.2...

No sign from today's PCE report that aggregate consumer spending is slowing down. Slightly the opposite in fact...

Core inflation ex-shelter is now running at 1.6% per annum over the past 6 months. And though shelter costs remain stubbornly high...

By coincidence or not, the sudden downturn in global risk appetite fits our short-term forecast for Global Industrial Production...

The July US payrolls report was the catalyst for a rash of recession fears, prompting the mini crash in risk assets and a...

The June US PCE report confirms that prices in the services sector are swinging lower again after a pretty hot first quarter. As the...

More commentary to follow...