October CPI Update
No huge surprises in today's CPI: headline CPI up 0.2% for the month (2.6% year-over-year) and Core up 0.3% (3.3% year-over-year)....
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Alex Haseldine
Nov 11 min read
US Consumer Spending Remains Strong, But Are Households Really Feeling It?
In the latest quarter, real consumption in the United States grew at a robust 3.7% annual rate. Goods consumption surged at an impressive...
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Alex Haseldine
Oct 41 min read
September Payrolls: The Economy's Doing Fine
The Q3 slowdown in payroll growth (smaller than previously advertised) is a productivity story, not a recession story. See charts below:
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Jonathan Wilmot
Sep 262 min read
False Alarm?
The downturn in PMI manufacturing new orders continues: after this week's flash PMIs we estimate the weighted G5 average will be down...
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Alex Haseldine
Sep 63 min read
Flirting with Fifty
Taken as a whole, this week's US labour market data, including today's Employment Report, gives the FOMC enough cover to start easing...
28 views
Alex Haseldine
Sep 61 min read
PMIs: Heading into Autumn?
The PMIs for August are in and the weighted manufacturing new orders for the G5 continued to slide. The G5 index fell to 47.2...
14 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Aug 301 min read
US PCE Report: Still Shopping
No sign from today's PCE report that aggregate consumer spending is slowing down. Slightly the opposite in fact...
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Jonathan Wilmot
Aug 151 min read
Three Cuts or Four?
Core inflation ex-shelter is now running at 1.6% per annum over the past 6 months. And though shelter costs remain stubbornly high...
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Jonathan Wilmot
Aug 82 min read
Global IP, Risk Appetite and Earnings
By coincidence or not, the sudden downturn in global risk appetite fits our short-term forecast for Global Industrial Production...
19 views
Alex Haseldine
Aug 63 min read
Not as Bad as it Feels
The July US payrolls report was the catalyst for a rash of recession fears, prompting the mini crash in risk assets and a...
16 views
Alex Haseldine
Jul 261 min read
Swing Low
The June US PCE report confirms that prices in the services sector are swinging lower again after a pretty hot first quarter. As the...
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Jonathan Wilmot
Jul 93 min read
Apres Moi Le Deluge (2027)
Post Election UK and French Update (7pm 9th July) The UK still looks like an island of stability for the next 5 years, albeit with the...
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Alex Haseldine
Jul 91 min read
June's Job Report
Employment slowing, wages slowing, labour supply catching up.
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Jonathan Wilmot
Jul 44 min read
Who Can Govern France?
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, WB Yeats: The Second Coming (1920) France and the UK...
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Alex Haseldine
Jul 21 min read
Earning Revisions Outpace Manufacturing Recovery
Upward earnings revisions continue to outperform the recovery in global manufacturing, where PMI new orders data has faltered over the...
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Jonathan Wilmot
Jun 281 min read
Exuberant But Not Irrational?
Nvidia's Stock price has gone up more than seven-fold since Chat GPT burst on the AI scene. So have One-year Forward earnings.....
12 views
Alex Haseldine
Jun 281 min read
US PCE Trends: Promising
May's numbers suggest that the recent bump in inflation has peaked as real spending cools down slightly. On the month core PCE was up...
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Jonathan Wilmot
Jun 102 min read
It Ain't Necessarily So
Last Friday's May Non-Farm Payroll report looked like a blockbuster (plus 272,000 on the month). And private payroll growth looks to be...
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Alex Haseldine
Jun 61 min read
Semi-Normal
Ahead of tomorrow's employment report the labour market is "semi-normal". Demand is easing but supply hasn't quite caught up. US job...
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