The Q3 slowdown in payroll growth (smaller than previously advertised) is a productivity story, not a recession story. See charts below:

Taken as a whole, this week's US labour market data, including today's Employment Report, gives the FOMC enough cover to start easing...

Competition for workers has been fierce but it now seems to be cooling down. Perhaps the Fed can afford to be more patient.

Inflation pressures are subsiding, especially in the goods sector..

The Fed doesn’t care that much that inflation has probably peaked; the important question is "where will it settle”?

The US labour market is still running hot, with very large numbers of quits and new hiring compared to normal. But the data suggests that...