Swing Low
The June US PCE report confirms that prices in the services sector are swinging lower again after a pretty hot first quarter. As the...
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Jonathan Wilmot
- Apr 11
- 2 min
A Window Open in July?
US data on growth and inflation is not following the rate cut script...
12 views
Jonathan Wilmot
- Apr 5
- 1 min
Picking Up Steam?
Another strong payrolls report for March means that employment growth picked up in Q1:2024.
15 views
Jonathan Wilmot
- Mar 22
- 2 min
What is the Fed Saying?
After Wednesday's FOMC meeting, the Fed signaled that they expect to make 3 rate cuts by the end of this year, and another 3 next year....
15 views
Alex Haseldine
- Mar 12
- 1 min
Mainstreet Hurting
The update to the NFIB survey underlines what small cap underperformance has been telling us...
21 views
Jonathan Wilmot
- Mar 7
- 3 min
European Goods Demand: Missing in Action
Euro area goods demand should be resurgent...after a prolonged period of weakness, euro area retail sales should be recovering...they aren't
16 views
Alex Haseldine
- Mar 1
- 1 min
Should They or Shouldn't They?
Looking at core inflation less shelter, you could say that we have reached a growth rate that is consistent with the Fed's target of 2%....
21 views
Alex Haseldine
- Jan 26
- 1 min
Why are we waiting?
For most intents and purposes inflation is now running close to 2% per annum, or even slightly below...
29 views
Alex Haseldine
- Dec 15, 2023
- 1 min
Holding Steady
The flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for December indicates that output price pressures have stabilised within the 'normal'...
14 views
Alex Haseldine
- Dec 11, 2023
- 2 min
US Labour Market: Almost Back to Normal
Friday's US employment report showed that the rate of private payroll gains ticked up slightly, but at 1.3% the annualised rate in...
30 views
Alex Haseldine
- Nov 3, 2023
- 1 min
Not Confident
The Fed isn’t yet confident that it has done enough to return inflation to target, but equally not confident that it hasn’t done enough....
18 views
Jonathan Wilmot
- Sep 13, 2023
- 2 min
Disinflation Set to Slow Down
After 2 very benign CPI reports for June and July the August report was slightly more concerning. The good news is that core inflation...
32 views
Jonathan Wilmot
- May 24, 2023
- 1 min
Manufacturing Dips, Services Power On
G4 flash PMI Data for May confirm that the incipient recovery in global production has dipped...
17 views
Jonathan Wilmot
- Apr 6, 2023
- 5 min
In a State of Limbo
Limbo: in a state of uncertainty, up in the air, in abeyance, betwixt and between. (Collins Dictionary). Stuck between heaven and hell...
18 views
Alex Haseldine
- Mar 15, 2023
- 2 min
Sticky But Not Stuck
Bringing down the stickier components of inflation was never going to be easy, but they have gradually drifted down from a high level.
25 views
Alex Haseldine
- Mar 10, 2023
- 2 min
Slowly, Slowly, Catchee Monkey
Competition for workers has been fierce but it now seems to be cooling down. Perhaps the Fed can afford to be more patient.
14 views
Alex Haseldine
- Mar 6, 2023
- 3 min
At Your Service
In February, the non-manufacturing sector accelerated and job creation stayed strong. However, data suggests labour supply has improved...
19 views
Alex Haseldine
- Feb 24, 2023
- 1 min
Back to Saving
Jobs and disposable income are up, but now consumers are looking for savings.
11 views
Jonathan Wilmot
- Feb 22, 2023
- 2 min
Turning UP
Near-term prospects for global growth continue to improve
23 views
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