Jonathan Wilmot
A Window Open in July?
US data on growth and inflation is not following the rate cut script...
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Jonathan Wilmot
- Mar 22
- 2 min
What is the Fed Saying?
After Wednesday's FOMC meeting, the Fed signaled that they expect to make 3 rate cuts by the end of this year, and another 3 next year....
15 views
Alex Haseldine
- Mar 1
- 1 min
The Other Target
In August 2020, the Fed officially adopted the 'Average Inflation Target'. Here's an update on the Price Level Target...
12 views
Alex Haseldine
- Mar 1
- 1 min
Should They or Shouldn't They?
Looking at core inflation less shelter, you could say that we have reached a growth rate that is consistent with the Fed's target of 2%....
21 views
Alex Haseldine
- Jan 26
- 1 min
Why are we waiting?
For most intents and purposes inflation is now running close to 2% per annum, or even slightly below...
29 views
Jonathan Wilmot
- Nov 5, 2023
- 0 min
The Missing Word
Chairman Powell’s FOMC press conference last Wednesday lit a touch paper to bond and stock prices globally.
4 views
Alex Haseldine
- Nov 3, 2023
- 1 min
Not Confident
The Fed isn’t yet confident that it has done enough to return inflation to target, but equally not confident that it hasn’t done enough....
18 views
Alex Haseldine
- Mar 10, 2023
- 2 min
Slowly, Slowly, Catchee Monkey
Competition for workers has been fierce but it now seems to be cooling down. Perhaps the Fed can afford to be more patient.
14 views
Jonathan Wilmot
- Nov 21, 2022
- 3 min
Unsettled
The Fed doesn’t care that much that inflation has probably peaked; the important question is "where will it settle”?
48 views
Jonathan Wilmot
- Oct 20, 2022
- 3 min
Perception Gaps
At the global equity market peak last year, financial assets were strongly outperforming the real economy, a state we refer to as bearish...
25 views
Jonathan Wilmot
- Oct 13, 2022
- 1 min
The Fed as Bean Counter
The Fed now has an explicit dual mandate (low inflation and full employment). What if we assumed that de facto it has always had a dual...
15 views
Jonathan Wilmot
- Jul 23, 2022
- 2 min
Do We Really Need Another Volker Moment?
In this tightening cycle the Fed was late to start and has been playing catch up ever since. Now the market fear is that they will overdo...
35 views
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