US data on growth and inflation is not following the rate cut script...

After Wednesday's FOMC meeting, the Fed signaled that they expect to make 3 rate cuts by the end of this year, and another 3 next year....

In August 2020, the Fed officially adopted the 'Average Inflation Target'. Here's an update on the Price Level Target...

Looking at core inflation less shelter, you could say that we have reached a growth rate that is consistent with the Fed's target of 2%....

For most intents and purposes inflation is now running close to 2% per annum, or even slightly below...

Chairman Powell’s FOMC press conference last Wednesday lit a touch paper to bond and stock prices globally.

The Fed isn’t yet confident that it has done enough to return inflation to target, but equally not confident that it hasn’t done enough....

Competition for workers has been fierce but it now seems to be cooling down. Perhaps the Fed can afford to be more patient.

The Fed doesn’t care that much that inflation has probably peaked; the important question is "where will it settle”?

At the global equity market peak last year, financial assets were strongly outperforming the real economy, a state we refer to as bearish...

The Fed now has an explicit dual mandate (low inflation and full employment). What if we assumed that de facto it has always had a dual...

In this tightening cycle the Fed was late to start and has been playing catch up ever since. Now the market fear is that they will overdo...