The Goods sector has done most of the legwork in bringing down underlying inflation in the last 6 months. But with fresh tariffs...

In level terms euro zone production peaked roughly 6 month after Russia invaded Ukraine and then fell around 7% through October 2023...

It's only a slight simplification to say that energy prices remain the swing variable in the outlook for global growth...

At the global equity market peak last year, financial assets were strongly outperforming the real economy, a state we refer to as bearish...

Today’s CPI report in the US surprised on the downside, a welcome change from the dismal run of higher than expected inflation readings...

So far the energy shock isn’t big enough to send US economy into a downward spiral.