The EU will need to cut consumption by around 15% from 2021 levels. And even then it will be touch and go.

Today’s US CPI report delivered another shock to markets by giving investors even more reason to fear a Fed policy mistake.

We love Jeremy Grantham’s work but we are not so sure that the current environment really qualifies as a super-bubble...

Diffusion indices like the PMI data can be tricky. And have been particularly so since COVID, because activity trends have been so...

Today's Flash PMIs confirmed that order backlogs peaked in summer 2021 and have plummeted over the last 8 months. Output prices were...

Today’s CPI report in the US surprised on the downside, a welcome change from the dismal run of higher than expected inflation readings...

Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan was a major strategic blunder in our view. It has strengthened nationalist sentiment within China and...

July's Non-Farm Payroll report suggests that the US labour market is still running hot, and that the hawks on the FOMC will get their...

So far the energy shock isn’t big enough to send US economy into a downward spiral.

In this tightening cycle the Fed was late to start and has been playing catch up ever since. Now the market fear is that they will overdo...

Investors are coming to the conclusion that, with inflation running so hot, it’s almost inevitable that the Fed will over-tighten...

At the start of this year, we expected global growth ex-China to re-accelerate...Now, the prospect is for global production to fall outright

Stagflation is the meme of the year in financial markets. Arithmetically, it is where the world is heading right now, but conceptually it’s

Fear and loathing has spread like wildfire in risk asset markets since the Fed "surprised" investors by looking beyond the end of QE...

Even before Omicron surfaced there had been a deep and wide correction to most of the meme stocks, as well as the “transformation” stocks..

September was a rough month for the global economy: we estimate that Global Industrial Production fell 0.7% on the month...

Global COVID cases peaked 5 weeks ago and have come down hard. China has now vaccinated...

Delta took a small bite out of global growth in July and is taking a larger bite out of August...

The Delta variant is a game changer...estimates of herd resistance across the world's largest economies and briefly discuss the implications