Following yesterday’s US CPI release we update some of our favourite charts on inflations and inflation expectations

Recession deferred? Manufacturing PMIs are pointing towards a rebound in the Spring.

It's only a slight simplification to say that energy prices remain the swing variable in the outlook for global growth...

ChatGPT is a great example of how man and machine can be even more powerful than either man or machine.

Inflation pressures are subsiding, especially in the goods sector..

2022 was a grim year for global peace and prosperity, and mostly a year of wealth destruction in financial markets….

As China exits Covid-Zero, cases will soar but severe illness probably won't.

Following last week's robust employment report, the Fed Fund Futures curve barely budged Here are some reasons why

In November, manufacturing new orders in Asia and the Americas extended their contractions at 44.6 and 45.2 respectively. In Europe new...

The Fed doesn’t care that much that inflation has probably peaked; the important question is "where will it settle”?

FOMC member James Bullard makes the connection between the current inflation and the effect of major wars.

Wars are inflationary, period. That is one of the clearest lessons of history, as we document below.

At the global equity market peak last year, financial assets were strongly outperforming the real economy, a state we refer to as bearish...

The Fed now has an explicit dual mandate (low inflation and full employment). What if we assumed that de facto it has always had a dual...

In addition to Russia's battlefield reverses, Europe took a significant step towards energy resilience this winter.

The US labour market is still running hot, with very large numbers of quits and new hiring compared to normal. But the data suggests that...

Russia is about to formally annex the parts of Ukraine that it has occupied, making (in Putin’s narrative) an attack on its forces there an

Panic is the short answer. Some thoughts on the longer answer below…..