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It Ain't Necessarily So
Last Friday's May Non-Farm Payroll report looked like a blockbuster (plus 272,000 on the month). And private payroll growth looks to be...
Jonathan Wilmot
Jun 10, 20242 min read
19 views
Semi-Normal
Ahead of tomorrow's employment report the labour market is "semi-normal". Demand is easing but supply hasn't quite caught up. US job...
Alex Haseldine
Jun 6, 20241 min read
7 views
At Your Service
Post-COVID normalisation means that services have been outperforming manufacturing through most of the current recovery in Global PMIs...
Alex Haseldine
Jun 6, 20241 min read
4 views
US GDP Tracker, Earnings Revisions
So far the reporting season for US equities has seen net upward earnings revisions pushing higher again. And our GDP tracker has ticked...
Alex Haseldine
May 20, 20241 min read
7 views
Messy Momentum
COVID completely up-ended the normal relationship between global goods and services spending in the economy, which has made the global...
Jonathan Wilmot
May 19, 20242 min read
10 views
Goods News
The Goods sector has done most of the legwork in bringing down underlying inflation in the last 6 months. But with fresh tariffs...
Alex Haseldine
May 15, 20241 min read
12 views
China's Solar Eclipse
Chinese President Xi’s visit to Europe has been dominated by trade issues, particularly relating to China’s industrial overcapacity...
Jonathan Wilmot
May 7, 20242 min read
7 views
Captain Sensible Saves the Day
Powell and payrolls revive rate cut hopes Chairman Powell played Captain Sensible on Wednesday, doing just enough to keep rate cut hopes...
Alex Haseldine
May 4, 20242 min read
32 views
Inconvenient Headlines
The headline from yesterday’s GDP data was that growth slowed and inflation accelerated in Q1:24. The inflation part was confirmed by...
Alex Haseldine
Apr 26, 20242 min read
10 views
EZ Production Stabilising as Energy Squeeze Abates
In level terms euro zone production peaked roughly 6 month after Russia invaded Ukraine and then fell around 7% through October 2023...
Jonathan Wilmot
Apr 18, 20241 min read
3 views
A Window Open in July?
US data on growth and inflation is not following the rate cut script...
Jonathan Wilmot
Apr 11, 20242 min read
12 views
Europe:Trying to Do Better
Industrial production in Europe has been one of the weakest parts of the world economy over the past 12 to 15 months...
Jonathan Wilmot
Apr 9, 20241 min read
12 views
Picking Up Steam?
Another strong payrolls report for March means that employment growth picked up in Q1:2024.
Jonathan Wilmot
Apr 5, 20241 min read
15 views
US GDP Tracker: Slowing Not Slumping
Our High-Frequency GDP tracker has come down from 3.1% per annum last October to 2.1% pa in mid-March 2024. That's up slightly from a...
Alex Haseldine
Mar 25, 20241 min read
23 views
What is the Fed Saying?
After Wednesday's FOMC meeting, the Fed signaled that they expect to make 3 rate cuts by the end of this year, and another 3 next year....
Jonathan Wilmot
Mar 22, 20242 min read
16 views
No Rush to Cut Rates?
Ahead of the March FOMC meeting the much repeated mantra - from Fed officials and private sector pundits - is that easing too quickly and...
Alex Haseldine
Mar 20, 20243 min read
18 views
No Rush To Cut Rates?
Ahead of the March FOMC meeting the much repeated mantra - from Fed officials and private sector pundits - is that easing too quickly...
Jonathan Wilmot
Mar 20, 20240 min read
9 views
Litmus Tests
Most of the time equity markets trend higher when upward earnings revisions are rising. And most of the time upwards earnings revisions...
Jonathan Wilmot
Mar 18, 20240 min read
17 views
Euro Zone Production: Still Sliding
Despite the bounce in manufacturing PMI new orders over recent months European industry had a grim start to 2024. January euro area...
Alex Haseldine
Mar 13, 20242 min read
17 views
Mainstreet Hurting
The update to the NFIB survey underlines what small cap underperformance has been telling us...
Alex Haseldine
Mar 12, 20241 min read
21 views
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