The Fed now has an explicit dual mandate (low inflation and full employment). What if we assumed that de facto it has always had a dual...

In addition to Russia's battlefield reverses, Europe took a significant step towards energy resilience this winter.

The US labour market is still running hot, with very large numbers of quits and new hiring compared to normal. But the data suggests that...

Russia is about to formally annex the parts of Ukraine that it has occupied, making (in Putin’s narrative) an attack on its forces there an

Panic is the short answer. Some thoughts on the longer answer below…..

The EU will need to cut consumption by around 15% from 2021 levels. And even then it will be touch and go.

Today’s US CPI report delivered another shock to markets by giving investors even more reason to fear a Fed policy mistake.

We love Jeremy Grantham’s work but we are not so sure that the current environment really qualifies as a super-bubble...

Diffusion indices like the PMI data can be tricky. And have been particularly so since COVID, because activity trends have been so...

Today's Flash PMIs confirmed that order backlogs peaked in summer 2021 and have plummeted over the last 8 months. Output prices were...

Today’s CPI report in the US surprised on the downside, a welcome change from the dismal run of higher than expected inflation readings...

Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan was a major strategic blunder in our view. It has strengthened nationalist sentiment within China and...

July's Non-Farm Payroll report suggests that the US labour market is still running hot, and that the hawks on the FOMC will get their...

So far the energy shock isn’t big enough to send US economy into a downward spiral.

In this tightening cycle the Fed was late to start and has been playing catch up ever since. Now the market fear is that they will overdo...