The good news in the CPI report is that Core Services inflation (sticky inflation) is running at 2% over the last three months. Moreover,...

The incipient recovery in global manufacturing that began in Q4:2022 has effectively rolled over and died over the past few months.

G4 flash PMI Data for May confirm that the incipient recovery in global production has dipped...

Limbo: in a state of uncertainty, up in the air, in abeyance, betwixt and between. (Collins Dictionary). Stuck between heaven and hell...

Competition for workers has been fierce but it now seems to be cooling down. Perhaps the Fed can afford to be more patient.

In February, the non-manufacturing sector accelerated and job creation stayed strong. However, data suggests labour supply has improved...

Jobs and disposable income are up, but now consumers are looking for savings.

Near-term prospects for global growth continue to improve

Following yesterday’s US CPI release we update some of our favourite charts on inflations and inflation expectations

Recession deferred? Manufacturing PMIs are pointing towards a rebound in the Spring.

ChatGPT is a great example of how man and machine can be even more powerful than either man or machine.

Inflation pressures are subsiding, especially in the goods sector..

2022 was a grim year for global peace and prosperity, and mostly a year of wealth destruction in financial markets….

As China exits Covid-Zero, cases will soar but severe illness probably won't.

Following last week's robust employment report, the Fed Fund Futures curve barely budged Here are some reasons why

In November, manufacturing new orders in Asia and the Americas extended their contractions at 44.6 and 45.2 respectively. In Europe new...

The Fed doesn’t care that much that inflation has probably peaked; the important question is "where will it settle”?

FOMC member James Bullard makes the connection between the current inflation and the effect of major wars.

Wars are inflationary, period. That is one of the clearest lessons of history, as we document below.

At the global equity market peak last year, financial assets were strongly outperforming the real economy, a state we refer to as bearish...